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Sep 27, 2012
09/12
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that's identical with obama's march in 2008. 72, 22 among hispanics. that seems like a lot and it is a lot but it's not that far off with most other polls were hispanics eventually, averaging about 45-point margin for barack obama over the last three or four months. what that means in is the idea that obama could get 80% of the minority vote again is actually quite plausible based on these and other data. that looks like is what is going to get you. if he doesn't get 80, he will get 78 or 79. then the road at the bottom scioscia the breakout for college grad, some college or less or working class. the right and figures for likely voters, obama is doing a little bit better among white college graduate voters than he did in 2008, a to point margin, close to four points again. in the some college or less grip, he improved by 13 points which is somewhat better than he did in 2008 when he lost by 18. so remember what i was saying about the outlandishly large margins that mitt romney probably needs to be competitive among white working-class, the run up amon
that's identical with obama's march in 2008. 72, 22 among hispanics. that seems like a lot and it is a lot but it's not that far off with most other polls were hispanics eventually, averaging about 45-point margin for barack obama over the last three or four months. what that means in is the idea that obama could get 80% of the minority vote again is actually quite plausible based on these and other data. that looks like is what is going to get you. if he doesn't get 80, he will get 78 or 79....
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Sep 26, 2012
09/12
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the first chart here is titled demographics of the 2012 election. on the left to columns it just shows you how minorities, white college graduates voted in 2008. minorities 8024 obama. what college graduates of four. deficit. in the right-hand column you see how much of demographic change we have just the last five years based on current population is eligible voter data. according to the stated just the last four years using an increase of three points from the share of eligible voters. decreased three points for the share of voters who are white, non college, and working class. that's quite a change. now, let's think a little bit about what these figures mean. the figures from 2,008 and the figures from today. first of all, even though it looks like the minority vote shares to go up. let's say that obama gets a% of the minority felt. let's say again he only loses white college graduates by four points. mitt romney would have to get double the margin of 18 points among the white working class. that's the change this bright. if this test is realized
the first chart here is titled demographics of the 2012 election. on the left to columns it just shows you how minorities, white college graduates voted in 2008. minorities 8024 obama. what college graduates of four. deficit. in the right-hand column you see how much of demographic change we have just the last five years based on current population is eligible voter data. according to the stated just the last four years using an increase of three points from the share of eligible voters....
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Sep 29, 2012
09/12
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you might say margin of 22 points. nowhere do you see these outside margins given how he appears to be holding the support and maybe been some. -- then some. that is where we are. these are not decided by the popular vote. and since we have this electrical vote system. the election really comes down to suit the outcomes that a number of -- the outcome of a number of swing states. you have six states in the midwest area. you have to restate out in the southwest. you have three states in the north-south. the state are very different. the six states in the midwest are much more heavily watched. they are much more slowly changing. the new south has a much higher level of minority voters. the minority population as shooting a very rapidly. it is more favorable to barack obama. with that in mind, let's look at the particular swing states that are in play. maybe more so than any other state, ohio was supposed to be the fulcrum on which this election might rest. it was believed to be accessible for mitt romney and that obama c
you might say margin of 22 points. nowhere do you see these outside margins given how he appears to be holding the support and maybe been some. -- then some. that is where we are. these are not decided by the popular vote. and since we have this electrical vote system. the election really comes down to suit the outcomes that a number of -- the outcome of a number of swing states. you have six states in the midwest area. you have to restate out in the southwest. you have three states in the...
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Sep 26, 2012
09/12
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obama has a three or four-point lead. quite a bit of demographic change. minority eligible voters down by three percentage points. the white working-class voters. they have gone down by three percentage points. again, it doesn't appear that romney 2008 among white college graduates, he is not making nearly enough progress. if you break it down geographically, it looks very similar to the data in 2008. finally, the poster child -- obama is running ahead, not merely as far as he did in 2,082,008. that is a very quick maybe it is time for me to step back and catch my breath and say why is this? what is going on? so the health care reform act and so on, the stimulus, it was looked upon unfavorably by a lot of voters, and it helped the economy come back from cataclysmic disaster, it didn't exactly turn him into a picture of health. and voters tend to be unforgiving about things like that. voters can remember a few years back. voters really remember what they had for breakfast. i think we are seeing that, in fact, there is an influence on who ran before and how
obama has a three or four-point lead. quite a bit of demographic change. minority eligible voters down by three percentage points. the white working-class voters. they have gone down by three percentage points. again, it doesn't appear that romney 2008 among white college graduates, he is not making nearly enough progress. if you break it down geographically, it looks very similar to the data in 2008. finally, the poster child -- obama is running ahead, not merely as far as he did in 2,082,008....
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Sep 24, 2012
09/12
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going from 28% to 22%, is worth $3,600. that is a very substantial tax cut and increase in take-home pay. and finally, for the upper middle income people, they go from 33% down to 26%. this is the people i think president obama talks about, $200,000 a year, $220,000 a year, and they would get a $15,000 increase in take-home pay. the point of the exercise is to show you that romney has significant middle class reductions in marginal tax rates which will yield substantial increases in after-tax income. if only he would just say it. that simply, because that's the way ronald reagan used to say it, and it worked. now, another guy who says it is douglas holtz eakin, if i clear my chart, he's former director of the congressional budget office. dougy, i want to get your take on this. i heard romney, and i think i saw a picture of it on the bus. he is now talking about take-home pay and jobs. now, that's what i call progress, because i haven't heard him talk in those direct simple terms. what are you thinking? >> i think that's exa
going from 28% to 22%, is worth $3,600. that is a very substantial tax cut and increase in take-home pay. and finally, for the upper middle income people, they go from 33% down to 26%. this is the people i think president obama talks about, $200,000 a year, $220,000 a year, and they would get a $15,000 increase in take-home pay. the point of the exercise is to show you that romney has significant middle class reductions in marginal tax rates which will yield substantial increases in after-tax...
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Sep 26, 2012
09/12
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if this gets realized minority vote share goes up a couple points from 26% in 2008 to 28% in 2012 and again the minority support stays the same it means mitt romney would have to get a 40 point margin of white working-class voters to win the election and popular vote. let's take a look at where we are based on a recent poll that came out and set the gold standard at the pew research center fold off and they do it right and have a 3,000 persons sampled. it is reliable and they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks. this shows among likely voters that obama is leading by eight points. if you look at averages in the national polls is a bit high relative to the average which is 4 points. if you look at polls that do it right and call cellphones and not just robot called their up by five points. this is the distance of the averages and similar to ron brown in the heartland monitor which we will talk about leader. the overall top line of 5143 and the break out for race. look at the black margin. 91 points. that is identical with the obama margin in 2008. seventy-three 22 among hi
if this gets realized minority vote share goes up a couple points from 26% in 2008 to 28% in 2012 and again the minority support stays the same it means mitt romney would have to get a 40 point margin of white working-class voters to win the election and popular vote. let's take a look at where we are based on a recent poll that came out and set the gold standard at the pew research center fold off and they do it right and have a 3,000 persons sampled. it is reliable and they give you a lot of...
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Sep 27, 2012
09/12
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there also is vanity and a state that is in the epicenter of the demographic change recrimination. mayor captured just turned 38 pin he is a graduate of stanford university and harvard law school. he is a national co-chair of the obama-biden reelection campaign. mr. cruz is 41. he is a graduate of princeton university and harvard law previous work with chief justice william rehnquist, advised the bush-cheney campaign in 2000, work with the federal trade commission and the department of justice before serving as the nation's youngest solicitor general. but to have them both here today. [applause] the gentleman, thank you so much for being here. you both had quite a summer. mayor castor, let me ask you to reflect on this summer. -- mayor castro, let me ask you to reflect on this summer. >> first, a greenwich solutions for of and for a wonderful event. -- first, congratulation for evident for a wonderful event -- for evan for a wonderful event. it was like throwing a claustrophobic into a closet and then taking away the key. [laughter] i think what we have seen in historical cycle of
there also is vanity and a state that is in the epicenter of the demographic change recrimination. mayor captured just turned 38 pin he is a graduate of stanford university and harvard law school. he is a national co-chair of the obama-biden reelection campaign. mr. cruz is 41. he is a graduate of princeton university and harvard law previous work with chief justice william rehnquist, advised the bush-cheney campaign in 2000, work with the federal trade commission and the department of justice...
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Oct 1, 2012
10/12
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there also is vanity and a state that is in the epicent of the demographic change recrimination. mayor captured just turned 38 pin he is a gradue of stanford university and harvard law school. he is a national co-chair of the obama-biden reelection campaign. mr. cruz is 41. he is a graduate of princeton university and harvard law previous work with chief justice william rehnquist, advised the bush-cheney campaign in 2000, work with the federal trade commission and the department of justice before serving as the nation's youngest solicitor general. but to have them both re today. [applause] the gentleman, thank you so much for being here. you both had quite a summer. mayor castor, let me ask you to reflect on this summer. -- mayor castro, let me ask you to reflect on this summer. >> first, a greenwich solutions for of and for a wonderful event. -- first, congratulation for evident for a wonderful event -- for evan for a wonderful event. it was like throwing a claustrophobic into a closet and then taking away the key. [laughter] i think what we have seen in historical cycle of some
there also is vanity and a state that is in the epicent of the demographic change recrimination. mayor captured just turned 38 pin he is a gradue of stanford university and harvard law school. he is a national co-chair of the obama-biden reelection campaign. mr. cruz is 41. he is a graduate of princeton university and harvard law previous work with chief justice william rehnquist, advised the bush-cheney campaign in 2000, work with the federal trade commission and the department of justice...
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Sep 30, 2012
09/12
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guest: because of demographic changes in virginia, it's gotten more attention last time, in 2008, and more attention in 2012. we will get some votes from romney back. i would say we'll probably get from obama that back us that would never vote for a republican. a lot of old line democrats are still -- there's still some of those around who will likely vote for me if they're fed up with obama but really, we've had more people that weren't going to vote, when they find out we're on the ballot, say thank you for giving us a choice and standing for things i believe, i'm going to go vote and work for you, so i think the biggest portion of our votes will come from persons fed up with the democratic candidate and republican candidate and want a real change and a focus on the issues that they care and believe about. as i said, no one else on the job front -- every candidate is saying they're for jobs but i'm the only candidate that recognizes that you can't bring foreign workers in here, taking jobs from united states citizens, and expect the jobs situation for citizens to be better. none of
guest: because of demographic changes in virginia, it's gotten more attention last time, in 2008, and more attention in 2012. we will get some votes from romney back. i would say we'll probably get from obama that back us that would never vote for a republican. a lot of old line democrats are still -- there's still some of those around who will likely vote for me if they're fed up with obama but really, we've had more people that weren't going to vote, when they find out we're on the ballot,...
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Sep 30, 2012
09/12
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the senate confirmed roberts 78-22. justice john paul stevens administered the oath in the east room of the white house. tomorrow is the start of the new term of the supreme court and it's shaping up to be an important one for civil rights. toor more we turn to nbc news justice correspondent, pete williams. >> this supreme court term may be one of the most important in decades for civil rights. with the potential for blockbuster decisions on race and same-sex marriage. the court will examine the widespread practice of considering the race of students who apply for college. the case brought by a white high school senior, abigail fisher who said affirmative action kept her out of the university of texas. >> i always thought from the time i was a little girl that any kind of discrimination was wrong and for an institution of higher learning to act this way makes no sense to me. >> the university says it considers race as one factor in administrations to achieve a racially diverse campus. >> one of the greatest advantages o
the senate confirmed roberts 78-22. justice john paul stevens administered the oath in the east room of the white house. tomorrow is the start of the new term of the supreme court and it's shaping up to be an important one for civil rights. toor more we turn to nbc news justice correspondent, pete williams. >> this supreme court term may be one of the most important in decades for civil rights. with the potential for blockbuster decisions on race and same-sex marriage. the court will...
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demographic, and maybe this,will do it. we'll have to see. >> reporter: in making its choice the academy was quick to point out macfarlane's first movie, the summer hit movie "ted" about a teddy bear made a whopping $430 million. >> the name is sauvignon blanc. >> he does have reverance for the oscars and there's a fine line of pushing the envelope and not going too far in terms of offending anybody. ♪ i'm singing in the rain >> reporter: macfarlane is also a crooner of old american standards performing here in london and his skills as a host has already been tested. at last week's emmyys he was quick on his feet after missing his mark. >> oh, the mike's over there. this is what happens when you don't come to rehearsal. that's going to be on youtube. >> reporter: and i can confirm that was indeed on youtube. he told us in a statement, quote, i hope they find out i didn't host the charlie sheen roast. a good canned sglat jason kennedy in hollywood this morning, thank i. >>> just ahead, a killer whale suffers a serious gash
demographic, and maybe this,will do it. we'll have to see. >> reporter: in making its choice the academy was quick to point out macfarlane's first movie, the summer hit movie "ted" about a teddy bear made a whopping $430 million. >> the name is sauvignon blanc. >> he does have reverance for the oscars and there's a fine line of pushing the envelope and not going too far in terms of offending anybody. ♪ i'm singing in the rain >> reporter: macfarlane is also a...
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Sep 28, 2012
09/12
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in two dozen one we were spending $26 billion -- in 2001 we were spending $26 billion in veterans benefits. not only do we impose a disproportionate burden on the people, but don't you think that this the stuff have a long tail on it, and it makes it much more difficult to solve our budget problems. it is one of the reason that the fischer plan will not work. the most decorated veteran, and we met with former g.i.'s, and you can see the look in their eyes. they have problems, and we can help them. we have one of these kids every day who is killing themselves. it puts disproportionate pressure on them. i am grateful for what they have done, of course. >> i think our service people, and i think their families for the sacrifices that they make, for their dedication to this country, for their patriotism. is it a burden? of course it is. they willingly step forward and made the sacrifices for us. my concern when it comes to defense is we're headed to a fiscal cliff. we're looking at sequestration. we're looking at $500 billion in cuts to the department of defense. whit sequestration, if that ha
in two dozen one we were spending $26 billion -- in 2001 we were spending $26 billion in veterans benefits. not only do we impose a disproportionate burden on the people, but don't you think that this the stuff have a long tail on it, and it makes it much more difficult to solve our budget problems. it is one of the reason that the fischer plan will not work. the most decorated veteran, and we met with former g.i.'s, and you can see the look in their eyes. they have problems, and we can help...
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Sep 25, 2012
09/12
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do either of you think that we might see that kind of dip for 2012, or does president obama maintain the numbers on jewish voters? >> new york is a very important state. it is tough to say what will happen. i think that the president loses florida. >> is this a possible revisit and of 1980? -- revisiting of 1980? >> i think the president got the highest number of jews, the second-highest being 95% of all blacks. it's not hard to understand why. people, not only jews, we were so excited that we would have an african american candidate president in the white house. i think that that pride or sense of feeling isn't something that you can say based on our history and how it wipes out. we now have come to the point where a black man or a black woman, or any other group could achieve that. i think he will not get 78%, but i think that the president is going to win and be reelected. it is part of that as opposed to having the time to stop him. >> we will take questions from the audience and another break. it is largely dedicated to the memory with respect to the moral failure of nations tha
do either of you think that we might see that kind of dip for 2012, or does president obama maintain the numbers on jewish voters? >> new york is a very important state. it is tough to say what will happen. i think that the president loses florida. >> is this a possible revisit and of 1980? -- revisiting of 1980? >> i think the president got the highest number of jews, the second-highest being 95% of all blacks. it's not hard to understand why. people, not only jews, we were...
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Sep 27, 2012
09/12
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it's a growing demographic. it's about 58% in the u.s. about 50 plus percent of all people in the u.s. have smartphones. and around the world, smartphone penetration is only at 20% today. it's a huge growing population. there's about 1 billion teens. my son is not even a teen yet, he's a tween, just turned 10. i've got twin 6-year-olds. they're begging me every day for a smartphone. that demographic is expanding. >> omar, we should explain that you are a voyenne of this industry. you've had some really powerful positions. how does what you're doing stack up -- i mean, the obvious answer to when you bring such a good idea to the table, what is an apple or google likely to do this sort of thing, what is the aim for you? because you know this industry really well. do you think you'll get bought out? what is the end game? >> well, i mean, today we've got 200-plus million registered users across 150 countries. we develop products in the securities space, in the privacy space and in the family protection space as well as for enterprise customer
it's a growing demographic. it's about 58% in the u.s. about 50 plus percent of all people in the u.s. have smartphones. and around the world, smartphone penetration is only at 20% today. it's a huge growing population. there's about 1 billion teens. my son is not even a teen yet, he's a tween, just turned 10. i've got twin 6-year-olds. they're begging me every day for a smartphone. that demographic is expanding. >> omar, we should explain that you are a voyenne of this industry. you've...
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Sep 27, 2012
09/12
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ftse 100 up by 20, cac 22, and the dax up by 32. in asia overnight, you did see some positive arrows. the shanghai composite was up by 2.6%. this is ahead of the market's holiday for many of these markets next week. they'll be closed for much of the week and did you see positive action ahead of time because there's an expectation that china could get involved in trying to do something to stimulate the economy over the holiday week. that's part of what was pushing things higher especially in china. oil prices dipped below $90 for the first time since the beginning of august. this morning $90.29. but the pressure on energy has come as a big surprise and it has been fairly relentless. also the ten year note if you take a look this morning, you'll see the yield at 1.64%. the dollar is a mixed picture. it is stronger against the euro, though. down against the yen. euro trading at 1.2056. and gold prices very quickly you'll see they're bupup about $4.10. >> even google, a birthday cake comes up. >> what? >> did you see this? >> you, there
ftse 100 up by 20, cac 22, and the dax up by 32. in asia overnight, you did see some positive arrows. the shanghai composite was up by 2.6%. this is ahead of the market's holiday for many of these markets next week. they'll be closed for much of the week and did you see positive action ahead of time because there's an expectation that china could get involved in trying to do something to stimulate the economy over the holiday week. that's part of what was pushing things higher especially in...
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Sep 26, 2012
09/12
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they are up by about 22 points. but this is coming after quite a bit of tumult. you had philadelphia fed president charles plasser saying the central bank's latest monetary stimulus will not do much to boost economic growth or lower unemployment. and it raises the risk of longer run inflation. people are focusing back on that again. that's why the dow yesterday and the s&p and the nasdaq, all the stocks across the board ended at their worst levels of the day. while we were sleeping, asian stocks also fell across the board. market watchers say that investors are turning their backs on that perceived positive effect. instead, they are focusing on europe's fiscal issues. we'll check in with our colleagues at cnbc asia to talk about what happened over there. you can see right now, down by 2% in france. in all of this is on continuing uncertainty about the eurozone debt crisis that. is a driving factor after people started ignoring it, at least for the last several weeks. >>> spanish protests against new austerity measures turning violent. demonstrators clashing with
they are up by about 22 points. but this is coming after quite a bit of tumult. you had philadelphia fed president charles plasser saying the central bank's latest monetary stimulus will not do much to boost economic growth or lower unemployment. and it raises the risk of longer run inflation. people are focusing back on that again. that's why the dow yesterday and the s&p and the nasdaq, all the stocks across the board ended at their worst levels of the day. while we were sleeping, asian...